NFL Week 3 Odds and Picks

Last week was good, as I went 5-0 on my picks.  I like the odds that can be found in week 2, but weeks 3 and 4 are always a little tougher as the books are still getting settled after overreaction to what we’ve seen in the young season.  This year is no exception, as the lines haven’t all settled in yet on the online books this week.  But here is what things look like for this week:  (all odds are from oddsmaker.com)

Cincinnati +3           at      Baltimore -3                    O/U 44.0
Oakland +3.5           at      Cleveland -3.5                 O/U 42.0
New Orleans +3      at      Carolina -3                       O/U 45.0

Atlanta -2                 at      Dallas +2                          O/U 45.0
Tampa Bay +6.5      at      Houston -6.5                   O/U 40.5
Indianapolis -3.5     at      Tennessee +3.5               O/U 45.0
Jacksonville +14      at      New England -14            O/U 47.5
San Diego +2.5        at      Minnesota -2.5                O/U 44.5
Philadelphia +2.5    at      New York Jets -2.5         O/U 46.5
Pittsburgh -1.5         at     St. Louis +1.5                    O/U 47.5
San Francisco +6.5 at     Arizona -6.5                      O/U 44.0
Buffalo +3                at     Miami -3                            O/U 43.5
Chicago +15             at     Seattle -15                          O/U 43.5
Denver -3                 at     Detroit +3                          O/U 44.5
Kansas City +7        at     Green Bay -7                     O/U 49.0

Season Statistics: (All records are “against the spread”)

Underdogs at home are 8-6 (53%)
Favorites at home are 9-8-1 (50%)
Underdogs on the road are 8-9-1 ((44%)
Favorites on the road are 6-8 (47%)
The OVER is 18-14 (56%)
The UNDER is 14-18 (44%)
Average Total Score of Games is 46.5 points
Games with 0-29 total points:  4 (13%)
Games with 30-39 total points:  3 (9%)
Games with 40-49 total points:  13 (41%)
Games with 50-59 total points:  6 (19%)
Games with 60-69 total points:  3 (9%)
Games with 70+ total points:  3 (9%)

Cover Streaks
These numbers are helpful as you get an idea of what teams the books are over/under valuing when setting the lines, thus helping you find possible value in your picks

Teams with consecutive wins against the spread
Arizona (2)
Carolina (2)
Cincinnati (2)
Atlanta (2)
Denver (2)
Green Bay (2)
New York Jets (2)

Teams with consecutive losses against the spread
Chicago (2)
Houston (2)
New Orleans (2)
Detroit (2)
Baltimore (2)
Philadelphia (2)
Indianapolis (2)

My Picks:

So last week, I went 5-0 on my picks, so I hope you at least played some of them and won yourself a little money.  This week is a little harder though, as week 3 usually is, with the books getting the overreaction out of the system and settling in for the year.  I only have two picks for this week and, as always, I don’t guarantee any of these.  If you choose to follow them, I wish both you and I the best of luck!

3 Team, 7 Point Teaser – 3 Units
Jacksonville +21
New Orleans +10
St. Louis +8.5

Denver -3 over Detroit  –  3 Units

Last Week:  5-0 (100%)
Season:  5-0 (100%)

This Weeks Tip:

Take emotion out of your wagering.  What I mean by this is do not bet for OR against your favorite team.  As your favorite team, you always think they are better or worse than they actually are.  That way of thinking leads to making some irrational bets at times.  My favorite team is the 49ers.  Since I don’t bet for or against them, I can’t take Arizona laying 6.5 points this week.  Otherwise, I surely would.   But it’s a good rule of thumb to get in the habit of.  Just leave your team off your card.  It’s bad enough when your favorite team loses a game…there’s no need to compound that awful feeling with losing money on it as well.

That’s it for this week.  If you have any wagering questions, put them in the comments below and I’ll try to answer them.  Best of luck this week.